There's no doubt that Robbie Hummel's injury couldn't have come at a worse time in the season.
It's difficult to not have a pessimistic outlook considering what Robbie Hummel has meant to this year's team.
We can fully expect that the entire world will write off the rest of Purdue's season. We'll hear pundits down-grading their rankings, seeds, and overall expectations, and many fellow Purdue fans will claim they are realists while they predict a sweet 16 exit.
Season over, right?
Wrong!
Let's not forget who this team is.
This is one of toughest teams in the nation, and the core of this team has dealt with non-stop adversity for the past two season.
This is a team that has dealt with the loss of key players players before, (including Hummel) and has learned how to fill gaps when necessary. JaJuan Johnson's emergence came as a direct result from Hummel's injury. Also, don't forget that Purdue's 14-0 run came without last year's starting point guard! The only consitency Purdue has had is being able to handle the changes.
This is a team that fell 16 points behind in Tuscaloosa Alabama but remained calm cool and collected as they fought their way back to one of the most exciting wins in Boilermaker history. They didn't let the Mark Ingram drunk atmosphere get in their heads.
This is a talented team. This is a team with two of the best players in the Big Ten (Smooge and JJ), the best defender in the league (Chris Kramer),the best PG-by-committee in the Big Ten(Lewjack and Barlow), the best player not included in the official game book in the nation (John Hart), and a player is is coming out of his shell with the potential of being the best 6th man in the nation (KG).
There's also potential for a surprise. Possibly
Most teams in the league would take that lineup in a heartbeat.
Collectively, Purdue has the talent to fill the void. Clearly the team is missing an important element, but I trust Matt Painter to make the necessary adjustments.
He's done it before...
This is the opportunity to test the leadership of seniors Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant. They sure as hell aren't going to throw in the towel anytime soon.
We've seen KG come alive before our eyes, and now the timing of his awakening seems poetic! Likewise, Chris Kramer has shaken a mid-season slump and is playing some of the best defense since the beginning of the season. We've seen what he's capable of doing when he needs to rally the team.
Their task of keeping the team focused and high spirited is not an easy one. But I can't think there's more capable senior class that can handle the responsibility.
Every team responds to adversity differently, and last night's finish in Minnesota was a sneak preview of the sheer will and perseverance that this team has. This is the reason that Matt Painter places such a heavy emphasis on character. And I have never had the respect for a Purdue team's character as I do for this team.
I'm not saying that all the pundits writing Purdue off are unjustified.
I just don't think they've done their homework :)
17 comments:
Thank you for something positive! BOILER UP!!! POTFH!!!
I would hardly say that this is the worst time if it is an acl tear.
An acl tear a little earlier in the season, say start of Big Ten conference play, would simply have ended Hummel's season that much earlier, but would not have allowed a return to full strength by tournament time.
And that would have meant trying to win a boatload of Big Ten games without Hummel and likely the Boilers would not be 12-3 in conference right now and would likely not be in a position to win the Big Ten championship or a share of it. Hummel probably is the difference in the current 3 losses and having 5-7 losses in Big Ten play.
Of course there is no good time for such an injury and there are probably better times, but there just as clearly are worst times for the injury to have occurred. If he's out for good this season, the Purdue got the advantage of his contributions for 27 games and that advantage probably gives them a half-dozen more wins than otherwise.
To boot, even without Hummel Purdue should be able to beat IU and PSU, ensuring at least a share of the title and sufficient time before the tourney for Coach P and the players to figure out how to play without him.
BTW, assuming Purdue is unable to beat MSU without Hummel (and surely he is out for that game no matter what) and go on and win against IU and at PSU, what is the tie-breaker for the #1 seed in the conference tournament?
I answer my own question, I think. From the Big Ten Network:
Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament
Section 30. Seeding Participants I. Teams shall be seeded No. 1 through No. 11 in the tournament bracket based on the final regular-season Conference standings.
II. A team's seed shall correspond to its regular-season finish (i.e., the champion shall be the No. 1 seed, the runner-up the No. 2 seed, etc.).
III. Teams that finished Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 in the regular-season shall receive a "bye" on the first day.
IV. In case of a tie for any place finish in the regular-season standings, the following tie-breaking procedure shall be followed in order to seed teams in the tournament bracket:
A. Two-team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season.
2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings (or in the case of a tie for the championship, the next highest position in the regular-season standings), continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or a group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
3. Won-loss percentage of all Division I opponents.
4. Coin toss conducted by the Commissioner or designee.
B. Multiple team tie:
1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).
2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.
b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).
3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.
4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.
I agree Tex, there could be worse times, you're right. I guess I was writing on the perspective of the train with so much momentum hitting a wall right before the most important part of the season. But, you bring up a good point, Hummel's contributions have put this team in a good spot.
And thanks for the BTT tie-breaker rules. I will probably have to refer back to them later.
It is nice to think positive. However, the history of Purdue doing well with injured players does not hold true when that player is Robbie Hummel. I believe the Boilers are 1-3 when he doesn't play, suffering losses @OSU, @PSU, @ILL and only beating PSU at home last year. Granted those were all road games and this year's team is better, but I still don't think it bodes well for the future, especially when that future includes the most important games of the year. I think this team can play with the others in the Big Ten still, but challenging Cuse, Kansas, UK, Nova, Duke, etc. for a title seems a bit of a stretch. I hope I am wrong, but Painter is going to have to be a magician over the next few weeks.
It certainly stinks for this to have occurred during such a promising season, Purdue Pete, and with such high hopes built up, so you could say that it could hardly come at a worse time for fan expectations which are probably a little bit higher now than at the beginning of conference play, since there are no major true road games standing between PU and the Big Ten Championship and a #1 tourney seed and I think PU was a likely winner over MSU with Hummel playing.
Hopefully the Boilers can overcome the long odds if the worse comes to pass and Hummel is out for the rest of the season.
This reminds me of the dashed hopes when Robinson got hurt just before the Duke game in '94, a game I believe they would have won had he been healthy.
Great post and comments. As for the upcoming games being "the most important of the year", I resonate with the point made by David in Texas: prior to this week, many other games were (at the time) the "most important of the year), including Tennessee, WVU, @MSU, @OSU, and even the Wisconsin and Illinois games. If we don't have Hummel for those, or we don't win most of those, then we aren't even in a position where the upcoming games are important at all.
I really hope he can come back for the NCAA tournament, but from what I'm reading here and elsewhere this is becoming less and less likely. Whether he does or not, we are looking at a tough stretch -- potentially 2 or 3 losses between now and the end of the Big 10 tourney -- that will likely affect our seeding there. If we drop below a #3 seed, it will be very unfortunate. BUT, the silver lining in this is that I can see next year's team being all the more motivated than this year's team, and just as good if not better. (An improved and stronger Barlow can start to fill Kramer's big shoes, and perhaps Marcius can help give us depth in the paint.) If JJ doesn't go pro -- more unlikely if we lose 3 games and bow out of the NCAA tourney at an early stage -- next year's team should be ranked in the pre-season top 5 and have a chance to do it all again. (Unfortunately, the season wouldn't end in Indianapolis, but it would still be very sweet.) So I guess one silver lining of this horrible tragedy is the increased likelihood that JJ won't go pro at the end of the season and that we'll be in the top 5 again next year, with incrementally more character to boot after this year's experience.
Boiler Up!
By "most important games of the year", I meant the BTT and NCAAs. I can't believe anyone would rather have a win over Tennessee than a Sweet Sixteen trip, or a win over WVU than and Elite Eight visit. Teams are defined by what they do in March. You can still go to the SS or EE as a five seed, so that puts slightly less importance on the previous games, especially the OOC ones that don't affect the Big Ten. The biggest game of the year is whatever your next NCAA tourney game is. I still think a FF is possible, but the NC seems out of reach.
If I understand the tie rules correctly:
1) If Purdue wins out, we win (duh).
2) If Purdue loses to MSU:
a) Compare PUR, MSU, OSU records against WIS (all are 1-1)
b) Compare their records against ILL (PUR 2-0, MSU 1-1, OSU 1?-0? w/ one game to play)
So if Purdue does lose to MSU, everyone needs to go root for Illinois on March 2, otherwise it goes to MIN (eliminates OSU) and then to NOR (eliminates PUR).
No wait - MSU would be eliminated due to their record vs ILL. Then OSU would be eliminated based on their record against MIN.
ALL IS NOT LOST!!! Though it be easier to just beat Sparty...
No doubt losing Hummel presents a huge challenge for this team. But the two Boilers in contention for Big Ten Player of the Year have been Moore and JJ; I see them stepping up to fill the void, and Chris Kramer is the last player in all of college basketball who would let the loss of Hummel equal the end of their (national) title hopes. I think losing Hummel will also take a lot of the pressure off this team, letting them have more fun playing the game (playing like they don't have anything to lose). I wouldn't sell Painter's squad short - if they truly are a special team, then this 'team' will show up, just like they did last night in Minneapolis. Their story isn't over, and there is still plenty of tourney basketball to be played in Indy this year. Go Boilers!
"Thank you for something positive! BOILER UP!!! POTFH!!!"
Thank you for that. It's easy to see the 6th Man is dissappointed with what happend last night. But it's over...done. Obviously, we send our quickest healing wishes to Hummel, but with the season still at hand, it is time to move on.
Looking ahead, Purdue stands on the brink of a Big 10 title. With a few days rest and some adjustments in the lineup... we still have a good team.
Come on Boiler Nation! Be proud of the team that we STILL have!!
Kramer and Hart didn't look too concerned at the Cactus tonight. Good sign?
I want to stay positive, I just can't get past how unfair it feels. They really have been building up to this season for the last 2 years. To see it all end on one play which should have just been routine is really sad. I can't remember such a devastating turn of events for a Purdue team, basketball or football. I guess you could argue that Orton's fumble, which was a turning point for that season, might be close, but if that team had really been meant to do great things, they would have responded better.
Before Hummel's injury, I couldn't remember ever being more confident about a Purdue team. The saving grace is that he's a junior, and we have a great recruiting class coming in next year, so we could still potentially go to a Final Four next year and contend for a title. Actually, I wouldn't be suprised (if no one leaves, that is, which I don't think they will) if we went into the season ranked 1 in the country. Maybe several years from now, this will be looked at as the big test before we rebounded and won it all the year after. You never know, just trying to stay positive.
The following comes from someone who has been bleeding black and gold since the mid-1970s, when I both attended and fell eternally in love with Purdue University.
Yes, it's time, as many are observing, for the team to move on. Sure, it's time to ask E'Twaun, JJ, Chris, Keaton and Lewis to steady their shoulders while a devastated team and its fans climb aboard. It's time to tell John and Kelsey they must transform themselves from first-year rookies into mature, miracle-working juniors who can deliver while millions are watching. ("Oh, by the way, John and Kelsey, your transformations must be completed in one hour, an hour that began with 7:11 left in the first half of Wednesday night’s game.”) It’s time to tell Patrick, Ryne, DJ, Mark and every other player on the roster that being their very best isn't good enough anymore. They must become far better--immediately.
Also, however, I think it's time for something else. We should give some thought to what might be going through Robbie’s mind right now. The media immediately concluded that Purdue's #3 ranking has turned "hollow," that everything that was within reach is in jeopardy--the Big Ten Championship, the Big Ten Tournament, a #1 seed, Final Four, and especially...
How does Robbie feel? Does he--unfairly and wrongly--blame himself? Does he believe--unfairly and wrongly--that he has let Boiler Nation down? If Robbie's even allowing himself to think of personal goals for a moment, what's he feeling about the Wooden and Robertson awards, Big Ten Player of the Year? What about his pro career? Is he fearing that the NBA is adding up this year’s ACL and last year’s L5? Is he wondering what all of his endless work was for? Shooting his jumper millions of times, practicing every little nuance of his free throw for years on end so that he in college would rank as one of the very best in the nation…and now this? Is he questioning what it was all for?
I hope not. I hope he's thinking none of those things. What I hope he and the team ARE thinking of is what could be, what might be, what is still entirely possible--if.
If…
"If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'"
Hold on, Robbie. Hold on, E'Twaun, JJ, Chris, Coach Painter and all the rest. Hold on just like you did in Wednesday’s game after It Happened. And please know that we’re holding on right along with ya.
I hope our Boilers are thinking about and considering Kipling. If Robbie and his teammates are questioning what all of the hard work was for, why that one step on Wednesday night had to take place, then I hope they are thinking about something that came to my mind a few hours after the heartache began, the shock settled in and the “Say goodbye to the Boilermakers” noise started.
What I thought of was the movie “Hoosiers” (pardon my swearing). That step with 7:11 left might—just might—turn out to be the latest plot twist (no pun, intended, Robbie; honest) in a story so spectacular it tops the original (and it’s real to boot!). I fully believe that another wonderful, gloriously uplifting ending, as was the case with the Huskers, is possible now, for our Boilers. Think of the circumstances our players now face. Think of the odds. Think of what this team is still on the threshold of doing.
If.
First and foremost, I want Robbie to know that we’re all praying for his complete recovery. I also want him and the rest of the team to know that, this year or any other, no matter what happens, the best or the worst, or anywhere in between, you guys will live forever in our hearts. We admire your achievements, your excellence and your courage, and we cherish the countless memories you have given us. Last, I want everyone to know that Boilermaker blood will flow black and gold forever. Ain't nothin' gonna change that. Ever.
The situation could be worse, much worse. Imagine if (1) Hart wasn't discovered during the Illinois win (2) LewJack had not returned this season and (3) Grant had not found his Soph shooting touch. If none of the three above had happened, THEN we'd be in dire straights.
Stay positive! Keep your heads up and cheer as hard as you can Sunday! Our team needs us at home!
Boiler Up!
BTW, if MSU, OSU and PU all finish 14-4 (assumes MSU wins at Mackey and all other games are W's), OSU (2-1) will be #1 seed, PU (2-2) #2 and MSU (1-2) #3 based on head-to-head records.
Well said Beethoven, I'd like to use some of that in a post (and credit you of course). Do you mind contacting me (purduepete@purduebball.com)
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